Editors’ note: Matt Hennie’s editorial was first
published this week on the Blade Blog, and elicited a quick response from Kevin
“Ennis” Naff, the Washington Blade’s managing editor, who
predicted the film’s critical acclaim will be matched by its commercial
success.
There was only one way to resolve this standoff: a duel.
Hennie and Naff have agreed to a public wager, but one with a bit more flair
than your typical big-city mayors betting on their city’s World Series
teams.
“In & Out,” starring Kevin Kline and
Tom Selleck, grossed $75 million in inflation-adjusted dollars in its 1997 domestic
release. Hennie and Naff agreed to make that the mark for their wager.
Their publisher will purchase a pair of chaps as the prize,
and the loser has to wear them (with pants, please) “in and out”
of the office for an entire day before turning them over to the winner.
Will “Brokeback” break $75 million? Stay
tuned to Blade Blog at www.nyblade.com for the answer, and for photographic
evidence that the loser took his bullet.
Matthew A. Hennie is editor of Southern
Voice and can be reached at mhennie@sovo.com.
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Shocking numbers to ponder on World AIDS Day
Which tactics and messages are most effective—and who gets to decide?
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Friday, December 16, 2005
Despite the DEFEANING buzz, “Brokeback Mountain” will be a critical
success and a commercial flop. And I’m ready to be slapped with the label
of “gay heretic” for saying so.
You can’t open a newspaper, read blogs or converse with a group of gay
friends these days without hearing about Heath, Jake and the gay cowboy movie.
It’s great that a gay movie is getting such mainstream attention, even
if the actors and P.R. flacks for the flick downplay its overt gayness and cringe
at it being called the “Big Gay Cowboy Movie.”
But the movie will be a commercial failure. The Hollywood infrastructure,
including distributor Focus Features, knows it. Focus execs say they’re
marketing the film “dead center in the middle of the country,” but
it’s clear that’s hardly the case.
The movie’s in trouble, and that’s a shame that will overshadow
the courage of director Ang Lee and others who worked hard to bring Annie Proulx’s
touching 1997 short story to the big screen.
“Brokeback” opened in five screens in three markets on Dec. 9,
expanding to little more than 20 markets and 60 theaters on Friday. If there’s
commercial support, the movie will continue its slow rollout Jan. 6 in 20 additional
markets and possibly stretch to 100 markets a week later.
It’s one of many moves to keep the movie from falling flat.
“Brokeback” opened AFTER Jake Gyllenhaal proved his heterosexual
manliness strutting around in “Jarhead” and just before Heath Ledger
leads in “Casanova.” It’s difficult to read coverage of “Brokeback”
without finding details of Ledger’s on- and off-screen romance with Michelle
Williams, who plays Ledger’s on-screen wife. They met on the set, became
romantically entangled and now have a weeks-old daughter.
The movie was made on a shoestring budget of $12.5 million. Producers even
moved the shoot to Canada to take advantage of its apparent cheaper production
costs. That budget didn’t come because Hollywood sniffed success; it came
because they smelled the stink of a budget-breaker if they put a more typical
movie budget behind it.
Left-leaning Hollywood sensed that red state America wasn’t quite ready
for such a flick, so they began a subtle but focused effort to pump up “Brokeback”
among their movie critic friends and decision-makers in the awards business.
And boy, did that ever work out well.
On Tuesday, “Brokeback” garnered seven Golden Globe nominations,
often a strong predictor of later Oscar success. And when the Oscars are announced
March 5, expect the current buzz surrounding the movie-—-and particularly
Heath Ledger’s performance-—-to translate into gold.
When the film widens its release, though, that critical acclaim and buzz will
fall flat. What critics like and what audiences flock to are often very different
things. Consider the “Shrek” franchise.
Sure, theaters showing “Brokeback” this weekend will be filled
with gay men and a handful of supportive girlfriends. But that’s not enough
to spell commercial success. Given the current political climate across the
U.S., it won’t be a surprise-—-at least not to me.
AMERICA ISN’T ready to watch a two-hour film about two gay cowboys. Many
of our allies can’t stomach the thought of same-sex marriage and gays
in the military, let alone their more conservative neighbors. I can’t
imagine them, then, shelling out $9 to see a movie that will put faces on issues
that silently make them shudder.
Supporters of the film will surely point to box office figures to argue that
the movie is destined to become a blockbuster. In limited release Dec. 9-11,
“Brokeback” grossed $544,549 and carried a per screen average of
$108,910, according to the Los Angeles Times.
The figures account for just five screens in three gay-heavy cities-—-Los
Angeles, New York and San Francisco. I’d be surprised if the movie had
anything but stellar attendance from the gayborhoods in those places.
But consider that when the movie goes into wide release Friday, its reach
expands to just 60 theaters in 20 new markets. Many of those screens will be
in smaller, not-so-well-attended or easy-to-get-to arthouses. Major movie chains
appear to have initially shied away from “Brokeback.” Is it a stretch
to think mainstream America will follow suit?
I’m all for “Brokeback” becoming the first gay-themed movie
to find mainstream commercial success. But what about “Philadelphia,”
“The Birdcage” or “In & Out”? All three featured
major stars in gay roles and found the crossover audience appeal that delivers
box office success. Unlike “Brokeback,” all three didn’t require
intense physical intimacy between their stars and weren’t gay love stories.
I’ll be one of the first to cram into the dank theater to see it this
weekend. But unfortunately, I doubt I’ll be rubbing elbows with many straight
folks.
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